Signs point to a retail rebound

Early estimates of holiday retail sales show the season might not have been as bleak as analysts had predicted.
On Monday, ShopperTrak's National Retail Sales Estimate reported retail sales increased 1.7 percent for the 2009 holiday shopping season.


The new figures follow last week's survey of 32 retailers by the International Council of Shopping Centers that showed same-store sales for December rose 2.8 percent compared with a year ago.
The official tally for the season, however, will come Thursday when the U.S. Department of Commerce releases its monthly retail sales report.
"I feel pretty confident that the Commerce Department is going to be giving us some happy news," said Kate King, a marketing instructor who follows the retail industry with the College of Business at Butler University.
Both November and December sales figures make up the holiday retail season. November monthly sales rose 1.9 percent, according to the department.
At the start of the season, analysts had estimated that sales would fall 1 percent to 3 percent. Today, many are predicting a 1 percent to 3 percent rise from the 2008 holiday season, which saw a 3.2 percent decline in sales.
"It would be hard to imagine we could do any worse than last year," King said. "We may see an increase, but it's nothing to get real excited about."
Many retailers, however, are optimistic about the results. Aeropostale, Costco and TJX Cos. all posted double-digit sales increases in December. Even some department stores saw a jump, including Saks Inc., which posted an 11.1 percent gain, and Nordstrom, which saw same-store sales rise 7.4 percent.
"It was a positive December for us, and we are encouraged with the results," said Nordstrom spokesman Colin Johnson. Its 2008 December sales fell 10.6 percent.
Still, Johnson said he is cautiously optimistic moving forward.
"We certainly recognize that consumers remain careful about how they choose to shop," he said.
Britt Beemer, founder of America's Research Group, agrees that shoppers are still frugal and looking for deals. He had predicted a 1.2 percent decline for the season but said Monday he thinks Thursday's numbers will show a 1 percent rise in sales.
Beemer attributes that to promotional deals offered by retailers on bigger-ticket items, such as computers and electronics.
"Flat panel screen TVs sold like hotcakes," he said. "And that made a difference."